On Wednesday, September 23, the Greater Phoenix Chamber and Cox Communications hosted Economic Outlook 2021, an annual event featuring economic experts who spoke to the coming peaks and valleys at the global, national, and local economies.
For more than two decades, the Chamber has hosted the most premier economic forecast event in the Valley, providing actionable information to approximately 750 business leaders.
This year, the keynote speakers Scott Horsley, Matt Stephani, and Elliott Pollack discussed the current economic crisis and their predictions for how, and when, the economy will rebound moving forward.
Global Perspective
NPR’s Chief Economics Correspondent, Scott Horsley, provided the event’s global perspective. As an economic journalist, Horsley reports on the fluctuations in the economy as it relates to globalization and booming and busting communities. With more than 20 years of experience, Horsley brings a unique perspective to his economic reporting. As a former political reporter who covered the Trump and Obama administrations, he’s able to explain the connection between policy and economics.
He shared his perspective on the global markets and how economies worldwide are managing and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to Horsley, while many other countries have done a better job of containing the virus, even those countries are suffering from the economic consequences of the pandemic.
“Most governments are working to avoid another round of strict stay-at-home orders,” said Horsley.
However, he noted that the U.K., France, Spain, and others are implementing new restrictions that will have economic impacts on key industries.
Horsley anticipates that the global economic situation will continue to shift as countries combat the virus and develop response plans to the current outbreak and potential future outbreaks.
National Perspective
For a review and forward look on the national markets, Matthew Stephani, President of Cavanal Hill Investment Management, a wholly-owned subsidiary of BOK Financial Corporation, joined the virtual event stage. Stephani, who joined Cavanal Hill in 2006, is responsible for the fixed income, cash, and equity management teams of the firm.
Stephani highlighted three economic indicators on the national level: the unemployment rate, consumer confidence, and the GDP.
He noted that in 2020, more than 20 million workers were pushed into unemployment, and millions more have been pushed out of the labor force. He cautioned that unemployment claims would likely continue in 2020 and into early 2021.
Shifting his focus to consumers, he emphasized consumer spending and increased consumer savings rates.
“The U.S. economy is 77% consumer-driven. So, how do you stimulate the economy? You stimulate the consumer,” said Stephani.
Overall, Stephani believes that the economy is slowly beginning to heal, but the long-term outcomes will be dependent on government and consumer responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Local Perspective
To round out the event, we heard from local economic expert Elliott Pollack, CEO of Elliott D. Pollack and Company, an economic and real estate consulting firm in Scottsdale, Arizona.
In his presentation, Pollack focused on the key metrics as they relate to Arizona and honed the state of two economies—one economy for individuals who have retained their job and another economy for those millions of Americans who have lost their job.
According to Pollack, 97% of the jobs created since 2010 were lost in two months as a result of the pandemic.
He also shared that approximately 3 million auto loans and 15 million credit card accounts are in some type of forbearance agreement and that about 7% of home mortgages are in an active forbearance plan.
Pollack cautions that some consumers’ inability to spend could slow the recovery.
Despite the grim job numbers, Pollack did emphasize the Greater Phoenix region’s resiliency in the face of hardship. He specifically highlighted that Phoenix has seen a better recovery than the national average and that the Phoenix housing marketing is still booming.
“In the wake of COVID-19, more people are moving to Phoenix for more space and a lower cost of living,” said Pollack.
Overall, all three experts are cautious in the economic recovery timelines noting that much will depend on the course of COVID-19 and the availability of treatments moving into 2021.
Want to stay in the know on Arizona’s economic trends and business growth? Sign up for the Chamber’s Economy in Focus newsletter and attend the Chamber’s bimonthly Economic Development Insider Series events.
The next Economic Development Insider Series event is on Wednesday, October 28. Register today!